Outcome Concepts

The Loop: North Star to Verdict

Six terms, one causal chain: north star → lever → hypothesis → experiment → run → verdict.

North star

The one metric you own — the thing the loop exists to move. Guardrails sit alongside it: limits the agent can't cross while trying to move the number.

Lever

A durable class of action believed to move the north star — not a single try, but a category worth testing more than once.

Hypothesis

A falsifiable prediction, registered before a run, about what a lever will do.

Experiment

A preregistered evidence plan for one hypothesis, with a fixed decision metric set before the run — so the loop can't quietly move the goalposts afterward.

Run

One concrete action, taken on one surface, in explore or exploit mode.

Verdict

The loop's ruling on the hypothesis once the run's evidence is in: supported, refuted, or inconclusive.